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joi, 8 septembrie 2011

GLOBAL MARKETS-Euro, stocks down before ECB rate decision

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By Jeremy Gaunt, European Investment Correspondent

LONDON, Sept 8 | Thu Sep 8, 2011 3:48am EDT

LONDON, Sept 8 (Reuters) - The euro slipped on Thursday ahead of a European Central Bank meeting seen calling a halt to its rate tightening cycle to support economies battered by the euro debt crisis, while stocks fell.

Markets have already firmly priced in an end to the rate hike cycle and the bank's rhetoric is expected to confirm that view in response to signs that the euro zone economy is slowing and with the peripheral debt crisis no closer to ending.

Market players will also be looking at what the central bank says about its buying of southern European and Irish bonds given that the ECB is internally divided over the programme.

"If (ECB President Jean-Claude) Trichet makes cautious remarks on bond buying, Italian and Spanish spreads could rise again and hurt investor sentiment," said Junya Tanase, chief strategist at JPMorgan Chase in Tokyo.

World stocks as measured by MSCI were flat to lower but the FTSEurofirst 300 lost 0.4 percent after a more than 3 percent rise in the previous session.

Global equities suffered their worst correction since 2008 in August, on fears of renewed recession in the United States and worries about Europe's widening crisis. Despite a modest bounce in recent sessions, the MSCI All-Country World index remains 16 percent below its 2011 high, reached in May.

As a result, investors are eyeing a Group of Seven meeting starting on Friday for some guidance about what authorities plan next to avoid a return to recession.

Some analysts believe the economic situation is such that coordinated monetary policy easing may be needed.

Barclays said that at the least it was becoming more likely that the U.S. Federal Reserve would indulge in a new form of quantative easing in which it sells short duration bonds and buys longer ones.

EURO WEAKER

The euro was down 0.1 percent at $1.4082 , still holding above a seven-week low of $1.3972 hit on Monday.

"Markets are a bit cautious going into the ECB rate meeting," said Chris Walker, currency analyst at UBS.

"We could see a bounce in the euro as pricing in for rate cuts in October are a bit far fetched but any lift is likely to see some more selling."

German government bonds opened higher ahead of the rates meeting.

New inflation and growth forecasts from the ECB's in-house economists are likely to be revised down.

"The risk is that the market is disappointed temporarily if they don't turn full circle in one meeting, but it's unlikely to be a dramatic sell-off," said a bond trader. (Additional reporting by Anriban Nag, Alex Richardson, Kirsten Donovan and)


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vineri, 2 septembrie 2011

GLOBAL MARKETS-European shares set to slip before U.S. data; franc up

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* A strong jobs report may spark more selling

* MSCI APXJ set for best weekly performance since March

* Japan down 1.2%, Australia falls 1.5%

* Economic problems, lukewarm bond auctions weigh on euro

By Saikat Chatterjee

HONG KONG, Sept 2 (Reuters) - European shares were set to snap a four-day rising streak by opening lower on Friday, following Asian peers, while the Swiss franc rose as market players booked profits ahead of a key U.S. jobs report and on broader economic worries.

Stock future indices in Europe STXEc1 declined between 1.5 to 2 percent while U.S. stock futures SPc1 eased 0.4 percent, with a New York Times report that the agency which oversees U.S. mortgage markets is preparing to file suit against "more than a dozen" big U.S. banks also hurting sentiment.

Trading was light in Asia with investors largely sidelined before the U.S. nonfarm payroll report, the only jobs data due before the Federal Reserve holds a two-day meeting at which some market participants expect some sort of policy easing.

While a strong bout of short covering this week has lifted most equity indices from August lows, the rally has taken place amid very low volume, indicating that sentiment remains fragile and markets are still vulnerable to selling pressure.

On Friday, stocks dipped in Asia as investors cut exposure to risky assets, but the region's shares still managed to score a solid weekly gain of about 4 percent, the best weekly performance since March.

The influential U.S. non-farm payrolls data is expected to show an increase of 75,000 jobs, although market whispers are for a much lower number. The data is due at 1230 GMT.

A decline in the employment component of the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) factory activity index on Thursday heightened worries that August U.S. jobs growth will be weaker than feared. ISM's factory activity index came in only just above the level that indicates growth.

Ironically though, a better-than-expected non-farm payrolls number could lead to a "risk-off" market reaction because that will be interpreted as making it less likely the Fed will launch a fresh round of easing at this month's policy meeting, BNP Paribas strategists said in a daily note.

Expectations of more stimulus have risen after Chairman Ben Bernanke said the Fed will meet for two days this month even though he steered clear of mentioning any fresh round of stimulus for the ailing economy at a speech last month.

Japan's Nikkei ended 1.2 percent down after rising for six days while Australia fell by 1.5 percent.

"Global economic worries are the main focus and volume has been relatively low recently. At times like this, both buying and selling can be risky, so this is keeping stocks trapped in their recent ranges," said Yutaka Miura, senior technical analyst at Mizuho Securities.

The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index weakened 0.9 percent after rising by more than five percent this week. For the year, it is still down nearly 9 percent mainly due to a sharp drop in August.

EURO WEAKENS

In currency markets, the Swiss franc remained the currency of choice as slowing factory output from the United States to China prompted market players to cut exposure to risky assets.

The U.S. dollar slipped to 0.7922 francs , well off highs around 0.8239 at the start of the week.

The euro languished near a three-week low of around $1.4224 hit on Thursday as lukewarm demand at a Spanish bond sale and weak euro zone PMI data reminded investors that the region's troubles are far from over.

Traders expect the common currency to trend lower in coming days on growing worries about the euro zone growth outlook and the possibility of the European Central Bank softening its hawkish stance at next week's policy meeting.

Gold was steady around the 1,825 per ounce line with investors reluctant to take positions before the data.

Oil CLc1 edged lower to below $89 a barrel on broader economic concerns though worries of supply cuts due to impending storms supported prices. (Additional reporting by Lisa Twaronite in TOKYO; Editing by Richard Borsuk; To read Reuters Global Investing Blog click on; here; for the MacroScope Blog click on; blogs.reuters.com/macroscope; for Hedge Fund Blog Hub; click on blogs.reuters.com/hedgehub; For the state of play of Asian stock markets please click on: <0#.INDEXA>)


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Nikkei slips back below 9,000 before US jobs data

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* Obama's jobs proposals may set tone next week

* Investors awaiting cues on whether Fed will ease

* Muted reaction to relatively unknown new Japan finmin

By Lisa Twaronite and Ayai Tomisawa

TOKYO, Sept 2 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei stock average fell on Friday, slipping back below the 9,000 level as profit-taking emerged after six straight days of gains and ahead of a key U.S. jobs report, while machinery stocks lost ground after weak capital spending data.

After sliding almost 9 percent in August, the Nikkei has managed to stage a 4.9 percent climb in the last six sessions but for now, uncertainty about the strength of the global economy is capping the upside.

A decline in the employment component of the Institute for Supply Management's factory activity index on Thursday has heightened worries that U.S. nonfarm payroll data due later on Friday will be worse than some had initially believed.

"Global economic worries are the main focus and volume has been relatively low recently. At times like this, both buying and selling can be risky, so this is keeping stocks trapped in their recent ranges," said Yutaka Miura, a senior technical analyst at Mizuho Securities.

The jobs report is the only major employment indicator before the Fed's specially lengthened two-day policy meeting from Sept. 20, at which many market participants expect the Fed to decide on additional easing steps. Unemployment is a key determinant in whether the Fed takes additional action to support the economy.

Economists polled by Reuters expect U.S. nonfarm payrolls to have risen by 75,000 in August and unemployment to stay at 9.1 percent. The report is due out at 1230 GMT.

The Nikkei fell 1.2 percent to 8,950.74 after closing above 9,000 on Thursday for the first time in two weeks.

For the week, it rose 1.7 percent.

The broader Topix index dropped 1.1 percent to 769.78.

Analysts said that for next week, U.S. President Barack Obama's new jobs proposals, due on Sept. 8 will likely set the tone for equities markets with some adding that battered Japanese exporters could refind favour if the proposals were well received.

Machinery makers tumbled after data showed domestic firms unexpectedly cut their capital spending by 7.8 percent in April-June from a year earlier, compared with an average economists' forecast for a 1.2 percent rise, hurt by a strong yen and slowing global demand.

Machine tool maker THK Co tumbled 6.0 percent to 1,457 yen, peer Okuma Corp shed 5.9 percent to 554 yen and industrial robot maker Fanuc dropped 3.1 percent to 12,570 yen.

Automakers were weaker after data showed their U.S. sales dropped in August. Toyota Motor fell 1.6 percent to 2,711 yen after its U.S. sales fell 13 percent last month and Honda fell 2.0 percent to 2,507 yen after its sales tumbled 24 percent.

Sony Corp dropped 4.3 percent to 1,625 yen. The Nikkei business daily reported Friday that the yen's strength against the euro is pushing down operating profits of electronics manufacturers, including Sony.

Department stores were weaker, with Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings dropping 3.8 percent to 762 yen after JPMorgan started coverage of the stock at "underweight", citing poor profitability. Takashimaya Co shed 2.3 percent to 522 yen after its August sales fell 0.9 percent from a year earlier, the first drop since May.

Volume was thin, with 1.7 billion shares changing hands on the Tokyo stock exchange's main board, lower than last week's average of 2.04 billion yen. Declining shares outnumbered advancing shares by 1,049 to 441.

Japanese markets showed a muted reaction to news on Friday that Jun Azumi, a relatively unknown former parliamentary affairs chief for the ruling Democratic Party, was named Japan's new finance minister.

(Editing by Edwina Gibbs)


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